Towards Uncertainty Management in LCA - Consensus Building and Practical Advice for Handling Uncertainty in LCA



1. Project title: Towards Uncertainty Management in LCA - Consensus Building and Practical Advice for Handling Uncertainty in LCA

2. Type of project: Group project

3. Number of participants: 10-15

4. Scope of the project: Global

5. Period: 4 years and started in 2008

6. Specific Goals
  • Facilitate Management of uncertainty in all stages of an LCA study
  • Establishment of recommended practice in uncertainty assessment and estimation within LCA
  • Elaboration of Guidance for practitioners and developers on estimation, communication, interpretation and management of uncertainty
  • Ensuring consistency and compatibility of approaches developed for inventory and/or impact assessment
  • Development of a practical framework that describes how to get uncertainty estimates and how to model the uncertainty in LCA
  • Provision of strategies for uncertainty reduction
  • Improvement of communication and interpretation of uncertainty in LCA
  • Provision of an information system on existing approaches with a distinction of LCI and LCIA for the level:
    • input uncertainties
    • uncertainty propagation, 
    • output uncertainties
  • Provision of case studies on uncertainty management
  • Recommend practice for method developers
  • Minimize resources needed to perform uncertainty analysis in LCA

7. Activities
  • Provision of existing approaches in a method library that will be accessible over the internet (wiki)
  • Identification of suitable methods regarding input uncertainties
  • Training courses for practitioners and stakeholders in uncertainty management
  • Workshops/Conferences to provide discussion/exchange platforms for developers/experts
  • Assess/estimate uncertainties within case studies
  • Organize expert workshop or propose conference sessions aiming at an "expert consensus"
  • Identification of suitable methods regarding input uncertainties, uncertainty propagation, and output uncertainties and derive specific advantages/disadvantages
  • Dissemination of results developed
  • Review by the TRC and the ILCB board
  • Consultation of results with the Life Cycle Community

8. Output until now
  • Guidance documents at an introductory level for practitioners
  • Report including consensus on recommended practice for method developers
  • Case studies with uncertainty management identified or carried out
  • Wiki website available including existing/published approaches identified, suitable for LCA, including a discussion of advantages/disadvantages of each method in the context of LCA
  • Project Group set up
  • Proposal on various scenarios under discussion with the scientific community

9. Progress done so far: 10%

10. Leaders
Ralph Rosenbaum
Technical University of Denmark

Andreas Ciroth
GreenDeltaTC


Publicly available documents

Not available now

How can interested persons get involved in this project?
Please contact: ilci@unep.org